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Dětmarovice vs Vítkovice — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Dětmarovice
Dětmarovice
CANC
13:30
Vítkovice
Vítkovice
4/11/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 15Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dětmarovice29%
×Draw21%
Vítkovice50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dětmarovice
1.59
Vítkovice
2.11

Vítkovice creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 49 away

creates per match

Dětmarovice
1.50
Vítkovice
2.55

allows per match

Dětmarovice
1.67
Vítkovice
1.69

finishing

Dětmarovice+0.00on par
Vítkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dětmarovice ↓

Vítkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Dětmarovice or draw
50%
Dětmarovice or Vítkovice
79%
Draw or Vítkovice
71%

Winning margin

Dětmarovice wins by 2+
14%
Vítkovice wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Dětmarovice 1+ goals
80%
Dětmarovice 2+ goals
47%
Dětmarovice 3+ goals
21%
Vítkovice 1+ goals
88%
Vítkovice 2+ goals
62%
Vítkovice 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Dětmarovice (draw refunded)
37%
Vítkovice (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dětmarovice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Vítkovice away — creates 2.55, concedes 1.69 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dětmarovice attack 1.50 + Vítkovice defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

Vítkovice attack 2.55 + Dětmarovice defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dětmarovice scores more
29%
level
21%
Vítkovice scores more
50%

Vítkovice at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vítkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dětmarovice host Vítkovice

April 11, 2021: Dětmarovice take on Vítkovice in 4. liga - Divizie F. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dětmarovice host Vítkovice at Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.