Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dětmarovice vs Třinec II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Dětmarovice
Dětmarovice
CANC
13:30
Třinec II
Třinec II
3/21/20214. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 12Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Dětmarovice38%
×Draw21%
Třinec II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dětmarovice
2.00
Třinec II
2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 4 away

creates per match

Dětmarovice
1.50
Třinec II
2.50

allows per match

Dětmarovice
1.67
Třinec II
2.50

finishing

Dětmarovice+0.00on par
Třinec II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dětmarovice ↓

Třinec II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Dětmarovice or draw
59%
Dětmarovice or Třinec II
79%
Draw or Třinec II
62%

Winning margin

Dětmarovice wins by 2+
21%
Třinec II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Dětmarovice 1+ goals
86%
Dětmarovice 2+ goals
59%
Dětmarovice 3+ goals
32%
Třinec II 1+ goals
87%
Třinec II 2+ goals
61%
Třinec II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Dětmarovice (draw refunded)
48%
Třinec II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dětmarovice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Třinec II away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dětmarovice attack 1.50 + Třinec II defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Třinec II attack 2.50 + Dětmarovice defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dětmarovice scores more
38%
level
21%
Třinec II scores more
41%

Třinec II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Třinec II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dětmarovice face Třinec II (4. liga - Divizie F)

4. liga - Divizie F returns with Dětmarovice hosting Třinec II. Match starts March 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dětmarovice host Třinec II at Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.