Dětmarovice 3–1 Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Dětmarovice

FT

3 – 1

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

10/3/2020

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 9Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dětmarovice56%

×Draw21%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DětmaroviceExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Olympia Bruntál

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.28

Dětmarovice

2.10

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

1.28

Dětmarovice creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 45 away

1.50

creates per match

0.89

1.67

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Dětmarovice

1.50

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

0.89

allows per match

Dětmarovice

1.67

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dětmarovice+0.00on par

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dětmarovice ↓

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dětmarovice or draw

77%

Dětmarovice or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

79%

Draw or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

44%

Winning margin

Dětmarovice wins by 2+

34%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Dětmarovice 1+ goals

88%

Dětmarovice 2+ goals

62%

Dětmarovice 3+ goals

35%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals

72%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals

37%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dětmarovice (draw refunded)

71%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dětmarovice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dětmarovice attack 1.50 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.10

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 0.89 + Dětmarovice defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dětmarovice scores more

56%

level

21%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more

23%

Dětmarovice at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Dětmarovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff