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Dětmarovice vs Jiskra Rýmařov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Dětmarovice
Dětmarovice
FT
3 – 2
Jiskra Rýmařov
Jiskra Rýmařov
9/19/20204. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 7Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dětmarovice39%
×Draw24%
Jiskra Rýmařov38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dětmarovice
1.60
Jiskra Rýmařov
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 60 away

creates per match

Dětmarovice
1.50
Jiskra Rýmařov
1.48

allows per match

Dětmarovice
1.67
Jiskra Rýmařov
1.70

finishing

Dětmarovice+0.00on par
Jiskra Rýmařov+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dětmarovice ↓

Jiskra Rýmařov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Dětmarovice or draw
62%
Dětmarovice or Jiskra Rýmařov
76%
Draw or Jiskra Rýmařov
61%

Winning margin

Dětmarovice wins by 2+
19%
Jiskra Rýmařov wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dětmarovice 1+ goals
80%
Dětmarovice 2+ goals
47%
Dětmarovice 3+ goals
22%
Jiskra Rýmařov 1+ goals
79%
Jiskra Rýmařov 2+ goals
46%
Jiskra Rýmařov 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dětmarovice (draw refunded)
51%
Jiskra Rýmařov (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dětmarovice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Jiskra Rýmařov away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.70 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dětmarovice attack 1.50 + Jiskra Rýmařov defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.60

Jiskra Rýmařov attack 1.48 + Dětmarovice defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dětmarovice scores more
39%
level
24%
Jiskra Rýmařov scores more
38%

Dětmarovice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dětmarovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Dětmarovice 3–2 Jiskra Rýmařov

Dětmarovice beat Jiskra Rýmařov 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Fotbalové hříště SK Dětmarovice in Dětmarovice.