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Dessel Sport vs Beerschot VA — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dessel Sport
Dessel Sport
FT
1 – 0
Beerschot VA
Beerschot VA
8/6/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Armand Melis Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dessel Sport15%
×Draw16%
Beerschot VA69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dessel Sport
1.25
Beerschot VA
2.77

Beerschot VA creates 122% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dessel Sport
1.33
Beerschot VA
2.55

allows per match

Dessel Sport
3.00
Beerschot VA
1.18

finishing

Dessel Sport+0.00on par
Beerschot VA+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dessel Sport ↓

Beerschot VA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Dessel Sport or draw
31%
Dessel Sport or Beerschot VA
84%
Draw or Beerschot VA
85%

Winning margin

Dessel Sport wins by 2+
6%
Beerschot VA wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Dessel Sport 1+ goals
71%
Dessel Sport 2+ goals
36%
Dessel Sport 3+ goals
13%
Beerschot VA 1+ goals
94%
Beerschot VA 2+ goals
76%
Beerschot VA 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Dessel Sport (draw refunded)
18%
Beerschot VA (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dessel Sport at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Beerschot VA away — creates 2.55, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dessel Sport attack 1.33 + Beerschot VA defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Beerschot VA attack 2.55 + Dessel Sport defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Dessel Sport scores more
15%
level
16%
Beerschot VA scores more
69%

Beerschot VA at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Beerschot VA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Dessel Sport 1–0 Beerschot VA

Dessel Sport beat Beerschot VA 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Armand Melis Stadion in Dessel.