Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Desportivo Huíla vs Wiliete — Girabola 2019

Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wiliete
Wiliete
12/3/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 6Estádio Nacional da Tundavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Desportivo Huíla45%
×Draw30%
Wiliete25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Huíla
1.17
Wiliete
0.79

Desportivo Huíla creates 48% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 99 away

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla
1.32
Wiliete
0.95

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla
0.64
Wiliete
1.02

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par
Wiliete+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

Wiliete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw
75%
Desportivo Huíla or Wiliete
70%
Draw or Wiliete
55%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
19%
Wiliete wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
69%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
33%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
11%
Wiliete 1+ goals
55%
Wiliete 2+ goals
19%
Wiliete 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
64%
Wiliete (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.64 · 101 matches

Wiliete away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.32 + Wiliete defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Wiliete attack 0.95 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more
45%
level
30%
Wiliete scores more
25%

Desportivo Huíla at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Desportivo Huíla vs Wiliete

Desportivo Huíla beat Wiliete 1-0 in Girabola on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional da Tundavala in Lubango.