Desportivo Huíla 1–0 São Salvador: Result & Stats

Desportivo Huíla

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

São Salvador

2/14/2024

Girabola · Round 10Estádio Nacional da Tundavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Desportivo Huíla54%

×Draw29%

São Salvador17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Desportivo HuílaExpected goals in this matchSão Salvador

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.61

Desportivo Huíla

1.33

São Salvador

0.61

Desportivo Huíla creates 118% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 44 away

1.32

creates per match

0.59

0.64

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla

1.32

São Salvador

0.59

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla

0.64

São Salvador

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par

São Salvador+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

São Salvador →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw

83%

Desportivo Huíla or São Salvador

71%

Draw or São Salvador

46%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+

26%

São Salvador wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals

74%

Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals

38%

Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals

15%

São Salvador 1+ goals

46%

São Salvador 2+ goals

13%

São Salvador 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)

76%

São Salvador (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.64 · 101 matches

São Salvador away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.32 + São Salvador defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

São Salvador attack 0.59 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more

54%

level

29%

São Salvador scores more

17%

Desportivo Huíla at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff