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Desportivo Huíla vs Santa Rita — Girabola 2019

Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Rita
Santa Rita
10/6/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 4Estádio Nacional da Tundavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Desportivo Huíla55%
×Draw29%
Santa Rita16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Huíla
1.32
Santa Rita
0.57

Desportivo Huíla creates 132% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 68 away

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla
1.32
Santa Rita
0.50

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla
0.64
Santa Rita
1.32

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par
Santa Rita+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

Santa Rita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw
84%
Desportivo Huíla or Santa Rita
71%
Draw or Santa Rita
45%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
27%
Santa Rita wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
73%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
38%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
15%
Santa Rita 1+ goals
43%
Santa Rita 2+ goals
11%
Santa Rita 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
77%
Santa Rita (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.64 · 101 matches

Santa Rita away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.32 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.32 + Santa Rita defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

Santa Rita attack 0.50 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more
55%
level
29%
Santa Rita scores more
16%

Desportivo Huíla at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Desportivo Huíla 0–0 Santa Rita

Desportivo Huíla and Santa Rita drew 0-0 in Girabola on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional da Tundavala in Lubango.