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Desportivo Huíla vs Isaac de Benguela — Girabola 2019

Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Isaac de Benguela
Isaac de Benguela
12/8/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 13Estádio Nacional da Tundavala

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Desportivo Huíla57%
×Draw25%
Isaac de Benguela17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Huíla
1.56
Isaac de Benguela
0.72

Desportivo Huíla creates 117% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 29 away

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla
1.32
Isaac de Benguela
0.79

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla
0.64
Isaac de Benguela
1.79

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par
Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

Isaac de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw
83%
Desportivo Huíla or Isaac de Benguela
75%
Draw or Isaac de Benguela
43%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
31%
Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
79%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
46%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
21%
Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals
51%
Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals
16%
Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
77%
Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.64 · 101 matches

Isaac de Benguela away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.32 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.79 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more
57%
level
25%
Isaac de Benguela scores more
17%

Desportivo Huíla at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Desportivo Huíla vs Isaac de Benguela

Desportivo Huíla beat Isaac de Benguela 1-0 in Girabola on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional da Tundavala in Lubango.