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Desportivo Huíla vs Baixa de Kassange — Girabola 2019

Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
FT
0 – 1
Baixa de Kassange
Baixa de Kassange
6/6/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 23Estádio Provincial da Huíla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Desportivo Huíla61%
×Draw24%
Baixa de Kassange15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Huíla
1.66
Baixa de Kassange
0.66

Desportivo Huíla creates 152% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 15 away

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla
1.32
Baixa de Kassange
0.67

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla
0.64
Baixa de Kassange
2.00

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par
Baixa de Kassange+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

Baixa de Kassange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw
85%
Desportivo Huíla or Baixa de Kassange
76%
Draw or Baixa de Kassange
39%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
34%
Baixa de Kassange wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
81%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
49%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
23%
Baixa de Kassange 1+ goals
48%
Baixa de Kassange 2+ goals
14%
Baixa de Kassange 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
81%
Baixa de Kassange (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.64 · 101 matches

Baixa de Kassange away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.32 + Baixa de Kassange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Baixa de Kassange attack 0.67 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more
61%
level
24%
Baixa de Kassange scores more
15%

Desportivo Huíla at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Desportivo Huíla vs Baixa de Kassange

Baixa de Kassange beat Desportivo Huíla 1-0 in Girabola on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Provincial da Huíla in Lubango.