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Desportivo Huíla vs 1º de Maio — Girabola 2025

Desportivo Huíla
Desportivo Huíla
CANC
00:00
1º de Maio
1º de Maio
1/24/2020GirabolaGirabola · Round 24Estádio Provincial da Huíla (Ferroviário) (Lubango)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Desportivo Huíla55%
×Draw29%
1º de Maio16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Huíla
1.29
1º de Maio
0.56

Desportivo Huíla creates 130% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Desportivo Huíla
1.28
1º de Maio
0.63

allows per match

Desportivo Huíla
0.50
1º de Maio
1.31

finishing

Desportivo Huíla+0.00on par
1º de Maio+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Huíla ↓

1º de Maio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Desportivo Huíla or draw
84%
Desportivo Huíla or 1º de Maio
71%
Draw or 1º de Maio
45%

Winning margin

Desportivo Huíla wins by 2+
26%
1º de Maio wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Desportivo Huíla 1+ goals
72%
Desportivo Huíla 2+ goals
37%
Desportivo Huíla 3+ goals
14%
1º de Maio 1+ goals
43%
1º de Maio 2+ goals
11%
1º de Maio 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Huíla (draw refunded)
77%
1º de Maio (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Huíla at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.50 · 18 matches

1º de Maio away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Huíla attack 1.28 + 1º de Maio defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

1º de Maio attack 0.63 + Desportivo Huíla defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Desportivo Huíla scores more
55%
level
29%
1º de Maio scores more
16%

Desportivo Huíla at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Desportivo Huíla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Desportivo Huíla vs 1º de Maio — Match Preview

Desportivo Huíla face 1º de Maio on January 24, 2020 in this Girabola fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Desportivo Huíla host 1º de Maio at Estádio Provincial da Huíla (Ferroviário) (Lubango).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.