Desportivo Brasil U20 3–1 São Bento U20

Desportivo Brasil U20

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

São Bento U20

J. Manoel 61'

V. Kauan 44'

Octavio Silva 21'

Cleber 90+1'

5/31/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Centro de Treinamento Desportivo Brasil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Desportivo Brasil U2056%

×Draw22%

São Bento U2022%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Desportivo Brasil U20Expected goals in this matchSão Bento U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.16

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.98

São Bento U20

1.16

Desportivo Brasil U20 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

1.92

creates per match

1.19

1.12

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.92

São Bento U20

1.19

allows per match

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.12

São Bento U20

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

São Bento U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Brasil U20 ↓

São Bento U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Desportivo Brasil U20 or draw

78%

Desportivo Brasil U20 or São Bento U20

78%

Draw or São Bento U20

44%

Winning margin

Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+

33%

São Bento U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals

86%

Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals

59%

Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals

31%

São Bento U20 1+ goals

69%

São Bento U20 2+ goals

32%

São Bento U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)

72%

São Bento U20 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Brasil U20 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.12 · 25 matches

São Bento U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.92 + São Bento U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.98

São Bento U20 attack 1.19 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more

56%

level

22%

São Bento U20 scores more

22%

Desportivo Brasil U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Desportivo Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Octavio Silva

44'

V. Kauan

61'

J. Manoel

77'

79'

90+1'

Cleber

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff