Desportivo Brasil U20 2–3 Portuguesa Santista U20

Desportivo Brasil U20

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Portuguesa Santista U20

P. Soriano 25', 19'

F. de Almeida 88'

Ramon 77'

Kauan 51'

5/2/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Ernesto Rocco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Desportivo Brasil U2063%

×Draw20%

Portuguesa Santista U2017%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Desportivo Brasil U20Expected goals in this matchPortuguesa Santista U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.06

Desportivo Brasil U20

2.22

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.06

Desportivo Brasil U20 creates 109% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

1.92

creates per match

1.00

1.12

allows per match

2.52

creates per match

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.92

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.00

allows per match

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.12

Portuguesa Santista U20

2.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

Portuguesa Santista U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Brasil U20 ↓

Portuguesa Santista U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Desportivo Brasil U20 or draw

83%

Desportivo Brasil U20 or Portuguesa Santista U20

80%

Draw or Portuguesa Santista U20

37%

Winning margin

Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+

40%

Portuguesa Santista U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals

89%

Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals

65%

Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals

38%

Portuguesa Santista U20 1+ goals

65%

Portuguesa Santista U20 2+ goals

29%

Portuguesa Santista U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)

79%

Portuguesa Santista U20 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Brasil U20 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.12 · 25 matches

Portuguesa Santista U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.92 + Portuguesa Santista U20 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.22

Portuguesa Santista U20 attack 1.00 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more

63%

level

20%

Portuguesa Santista U20 scores more

17%

Desportivo Brasil U20 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Desportivo Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

P. Soriano

25'

P. Soriano

51'

Kauan

77'

Ramon

82'

Guilherme Gomes

88'

F. de Almeida

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff