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Desportivo Brasil U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Desportivo Brasil U20
Desportivo Brasil U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gremio Prudente U20
Gremio Prudente U20
C. Nogueira 79'
S. Amilca 12' (pen)
7/11/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 11Centro de Treinamento Desportivo Brasil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Desportivo Brasil U2045%
×Draw25%
Gremio Prudente U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.58
Gremio Prudente U20
1.25

Desportivo Brasil U20 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

creates per match

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.92
Gremio Prudente U20
1.38

allows per match

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.12
Gremio Prudente U20
1.24

finishing

Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par
Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Brasil U20 ↓

Gremio Prudente U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Desportivo Brasil U20 or draw
70%
Desportivo Brasil U20 or Gremio Prudente U20
75%
Draw or Gremio Prudente U20
55%

Winning margin

Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+
23%
Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals
79%
Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals
47%
Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals
21%
Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals
71%
Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals
36%
Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
60%
Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Brasil U20 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.12 · 25 matches

Gremio Prudente U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.92 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.58

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.38 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more
45%
level
25%
Gremio Prudente U20 scores more
30%

Desportivo Brasil U20 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Desportivo Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
S. AmilcaPenalty
79'
C. Nogueira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Desportivo Brasil U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20

Desportivo Brasil U20 beat Gremio Prudente U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 11, 2025.

Goals: S. Amilca (12' pen), C. Nogueira (79').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Desportivo Brasil in Porto Feliz, São Paulo.