Desportivo Brasil U20 9–1 Elosport U20

Desportivo Brasil U20

FT

9 – 1

HT: 7 – 0

Elosport U20

C. Nogueira 60', 41'

L. Souza 47'

Octavio Silva 45+3', 45+2', 5'

Claudio 34'

R. Zuim 32'

C. Eduardo de Oliveira 15'

K. dos Santos 61'

5/3/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Centro de Treinamento Desportivo Brasil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Desportivo Brasil U2084%

×Draw11%

Elosport U205%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Desportivo Brasil U20Expected goals in this matchElosport U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

0.66

Desportivo Brasil U20

3.06

Elosport U20

0.66

Desportivo Brasil U20 creates 364% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 5 away

1.92

creates per match

0.20

1.12

allows per match

4.20

creates per match

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.92

Elosport U20

0.20

allows per match

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.12

Elosport U20

4.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

Elosport U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Brasil U20 ↓

Elosport U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Desportivo Brasil U20 or draw

95%

Desportivo Brasil U20 or Elosport U20

89%

Draw or Elosport U20

16%

Winning margin

Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+

65%

Elosport U20 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals

95%

Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals

80%

Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals

57%

Elosport U20 1+ goals

48%

Elosport U20 2+ goals

14%

Elosport U20 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)

94%

Elosport U20 (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Brasil U20 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.12 · 25 matches

Elosport U20 away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.92 + Elosport U20 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.06

Elosport U20 attack 0.20 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more

84%

level

11%

Elosport U20 scores more

5%

Desportivo Brasil U20 at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Desportivo Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Octavio Silva

15'

C. Eduardo de Oliveira

32'

R. Zuim

34'

Claudio

41'

C. Nogueira

45+2'

Octavio Silva

45+3'

Octavio Silva

47'

L. Souza

60'

C. Nogueira

61'

K. dos Santos

79'

M. Pimenta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff