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Desportivo Brasil U20 vs Bandeirante U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Desportivo Brasil U20
Desportivo Brasil U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bandeirante U20
Bandeirante U20
M. Ponciano 89'
7/3/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Desportivo Brasil U2057%
×Draw22%
Bandeirante U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.93
Bandeirante U20
1.06

Desportivo Brasil U20 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

creates per match

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.92
Bandeirante U20
1.00

allows per match

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.12
Bandeirante U20
1.94

finishing

Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par
Bandeirante U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Brasil U20 ↓

Bandeirante U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Desportivo Brasil U20 or draw
80%
Desportivo Brasil U20 or Bandeirante U20
78%
Draw or Bandeirante U20
43%

Winning margin

Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+
34%
Bandeirante U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals
85%
Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals
57%
Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals
30%
Bandeirante U20 1+ goals
65%
Bandeirante U20 2+ goals
29%
Bandeirante U20 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
74%
Bandeirante U20 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Brasil U20 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.12 · 25 matches

Bandeirante U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.92 + Bandeirante U20 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.93

Bandeirante U20 attack 1.00 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more
57%
level
22%
Bandeirante U20 scores more
20%

Desportivo Brasil U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Desportivo Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

89'
M. Ponciano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Desportivo Brasil U20 vs Bandeirante U20

Desportivo Brasil U20 beat Bandeirante U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 3, 2026.

Goals: M. Ponciano (89').