Desna 1–1 Kobra: Result & Stats | Persha Liga

Desna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kobra

O. Filippov 76'

V. Subochev 79'

8/14/2016

Persha Liga · Round 4Stadion Sonyachnyj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Desna61%

×Draw23%

Kobra16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DesnaExpected goals in this matchKobra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.75

Desna

1.75

Kobra

0.75

Desna creates 133% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Desna

1.50

Kobra

0.50

allows per match

Desna

1.00

Kobra

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Desna+0.00on par

Kobra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desna ↓

Kobra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Desna or draw

84%

Desna or Kobra

77%

Draw or Kobra

39%

Winning margin

Desna wins by 2+

35%

Kobra wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Desna 1+ goals

83%

Desna 2+ goals

52%

Desna 3+ goals

25%

Kobra 1+ goals

53%

Kobra 2+ goals

17%

Kobra 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Desna (draw refunded)

80%

Kobra (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desna at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Kobra away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desna attack 1.50 + Kobra defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kobra attack 0.50 + Desna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Desna scores more

61%

level

23%

Kobra scores more

16%

Desna at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Desna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'

B. Eloev← A. Kicha

57'

R. Ivashko← B. Semenets

76'

O. Filippov

79'

V. Subochev

85'

V. Abelentsev← S. Kravchenko

90'

P. Shchedrakov← O. Volkov

Desna

Kobra

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: O. Ryabokon

90'▲P. Shchedrakov←▼O. Volkov

Desna substitutes

ShchedrakovSoldatSukhomlynovGryshchenkoBanasevychMelashenkoBovtruk

Manager: S. Syzykhin

56'▲B. Eloev←▼A. Kicha

57'▲R. Ivashko←▼B. Semenets

85'▲V. Abelentsev←▼S. Kravchenko

Kobra substitutes

EloevIvashkoAbelentsevCherednichenkoKravchenkoMasalovVolynets

Match Recap: Desna vs Kobra

Desna and Kobra drew 1-1 in Persha Liga on August 14, 2016.

Goals: O. Filippov (76'), V. Subochev (79').

The match was played at Stadion Sonyachnyj in Piatykhatky.

Desna vs Kobra — Persha Liga 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Desna vs Kobra