Des Moines Menace 6–0 Wichita: Result & Stats

Des Moines Menace

FT

6 – 0

Wichita

6/17/2021

USL League Two · Round 28Valley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Des Moines Menace80%

×Draw12%

Wichita8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Des Moines MenaceExpected goals in this matchWichita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.03

0.86

Des Moines Menace

3.03

Wichita

0.86

Des Moines Menace creates 252% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 18 away

3.22

creates per match

0.78

0.94

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Des Moines Menace

3.22

Wichita

0.78

allows per match

Des Moines Menace

0.94

Wichita

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Des Moines Menace+0.00on par

Wichita+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Des Moines Menace ↓

Wichita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Des Moines Menace or draw

92%

Des Moines Menace or Wichita

88%

Draw or Wichita

20%

Winning margin

Des Moines Menace wins by 2+

60%

Wichita wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Des Moines Menace 1+ goals

95%

Des Moines Menace 2+ goals

80%

Des Moines Menace 3+ goals

57%

Wichita 1+ goals

58%

Wichita 2+ goals

21%

Wichita 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)

91%

Wichita (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Des Moines Menace at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Wichita away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Des Moines Menace attack 3.22 + Wichita defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.03

Wichita attack 0.78 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Des Moines Menace scores more

80%

level

12%

Wichita scores more

8%

Des Moines Menace at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff