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Des Moines Menace vs St. Charles — USL League Two 2018

Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
St. Charles
St. Charles
6/16/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 10Valley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Des Moines Menace60%
×Draw18%
St. Charles22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Des Moines Menace
2.78
St. Charles
1.68

Des Moines Menace creates 65% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 12 away

creates per match

Des Moines Menace
3.22
St. Charles
2.42

allows per match

Des Moines Menace
0.94
St. Charles
2.33

finishing

Des Moines Menace+0.00on par
St. Charles+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Des Moines Menace ↓

St. Charles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Des Moines Menace or draw
78%
Des Moines Menace or St. Charles
82%
Draw or St. Charles
40%

Winning margin

Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
40%
St. Charles wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
94%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
76%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
51%
St. Charles 1+ goals
81%
St. Charles 2+ goals
50%
St. Charles 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
73%
St. Charles (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Des Moines Menace at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

St. Charles away — creates 2.42, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Des Moines Menace attack 3.22 + St. Charles defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.78

St. Charles attack 2.42 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Des Moines Menace scores more
60%
level
18%
St. Charles scores more
22%

Des Moines Menace at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Des Moines Menace 4–2 St. Charles

Des Moines Menace beat St. Charles 4-2 in USL League Two on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Valley Stadium in West Des Moines, Iowa.