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Des Moines Menace vs Portland Timbers III — USL League Two 2018

Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menaceadvanced
FT
2 – 0
Portland Timbers III
Portland Timbers III
J. Thomas 85'
Horveno 56'
7/26/2021USL League TwoUSL League Two · Championship - Semi-finalsValley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Des Moines Menace55%
×Draw20%
Portland Timbers III26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Des Moines Menace
2.35
Portland Timbers III
1.57

Des Moines Menace creates 50% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 15 away

creates per match

Des Moines Menace
3.22
Portland Timbers III
2.20

allows per match

Des Moines Menace
0.94
Portland Timbers III
1.47

finishing

Des Moines Menace+0.00on par
Portland Timbers III+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Des Moines Menace ↓

Portland Timbers III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Des Moines Menace or draw
74%
Des Moines Menace or Portland Timbers III
80%
Draw or Portland Timbers III
45%

Winning margin

Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
34%
Portland Timbers III wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
90%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
68%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
41%
Portland Timbers III 1+ goals
79%
Portland Timbers III 2+ goals
46%
Portland Timbers III 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
68%
Portland Timbers III (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Des Moines Menace at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Portland Timbers III away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Des Moines Menace attack 3.22 + Portland Timbers III defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.35

Portland Timbers III attack 2.20 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Des Moines Menace scores more
55%
level
20%
Portland Timbers III scores more
26%

Des Moines Menace at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
Horveno
85'
J. Thomas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Des Moines Menace vs Portland Timbers III

Des Moines Menace beat Portland Timbers III 2-0 in USL League Two on July 26, 2021.

Goals: Horveno (56'), J. Thomas (85').

The match was played at Valley Stadium in West Des Moines, Iowa.