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Des Moines Menace vs Manitoba — USL League Two 2018

Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
PST
00:30
Manitoba
Manitoba
5/23/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 9Drake Stadium (Des Moines)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Des Moines Menace61%
×Draw19%
Manitoba20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Des Moines Menace
2.45
Manitoba
1.34

Des Moines Menace creates 83% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 12 away

creates per match

Des Moines Menace
3.22
Manitoba
1.75

allows per match

Des Moines Menace
0.94
Manitoba
1.67

finishing

Des Moines Menace+0.00on par
Manitoba+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Des Moines Menace ↓

Manitoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Des Moines Menace or draw
80%
Des Moines Menace or Manitoba
81%
Draw or Manitoba
39%

Winning margin

Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
40%
Manitoba wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
91%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
70%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
44%
Manitoba 1+ goals
74%
Manitoba 2+ goals
39%
Manitoba 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
76%
Manitoba (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Des Moines Menace at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Manitoba away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Des Moines Menace attack 3.22 + Manitoba defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.45

Manitoba attack 1.75 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Des Moines Menace scores more
61%
level
19%
Manitoba scores more
20%

Des Moines Menace at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Des Moines Menace face Manitoba (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Des Moines Menace hosting Manitoba. Match starts May 23, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Des Moines Menace host Manitoba at Drake Stadium (Des Moines).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.