Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Des Moines Menace vs Chicago Fire II — USL League Two 2018

Des Moines Menace
Des Moines Menace
FT
0 – 1
Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
7/21/2018USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - FinalsValley Stadium (West Des Moines, Iowa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Des Moines Menace47%
×Draw20%
Chicago Fire II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Des Moines Menace
2.23
Chicago Fire II
1.85

Des Moines Menace creates 21% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 21 away

creates per match

Des Moines Menace
3.22
Chicago Fire II
2.76

allows per match

Des Moines Menace
0.94
Chicago Fire II
1.24

finishing

Des Moines Menace+0.00on par
Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Des Moines Menace ↓

Chicago Fire II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Des Moines Menace or draw
67%
Des Moines Menace or Chicago Fire II
80%
Draw or Chicago Fire II
53%

Winning margin

Des Moines Menace wins by 2+
27%
Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Des Moines Menace 1+ goals
89%
Des Moines Menace 2+ goals
65%
Des Moines Menace 3+ goals
38%
Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
84%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
55%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)
59%
Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Des Moines Menace at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 2.76, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Des Moines Menace attack 3.22 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 2.23

Chicago Fire II attack 2.76 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Des Moines Menace scores more
47%
level
20%
Chicago Fire II scores more
33%

Des Moines Menace at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Des Moines Menace vs Chicago Fire II

Chicago Fire II beat Des Moines Menace 1-0 in USL League Two on July 21, 2018.

The match was played at Valley Stadium (West Des Moines, Iowa).