Des Moines Menace 2–0 Bavarian: Result & Stats

Des Moines Menace

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bavarian

7/19/2024

USL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsShea Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Des Moines Menace68%

×Draw16%

Bavarian16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Des Moines MenaceExpected goals in this matchBavarian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

1.28

Des Moines Menace

2.77

Bavarian

1.28

Des Moines Menace creates 116% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 13 away

3.22

creates per match

1.62

0.94

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Des Moines Menace

3.22

Bavarian

1.62

allows per match

Des Moines Menace

0.94

Bavarian

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Des Moines Menace+0.00on par

Bavarian+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Des Moines Menace ↓

Bavarian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Des Moines Menace or draw

84%

Des Moines Menace or Bavarian

84%

Draw or Bavarian

32%

Winning margin

Des Moines Menace wins by 2+

47%

Bavarian wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Des Moines Menace 1+ goals

94%

Des Moines Menace 2+ goals

76%

Des Moines Menace 3+ goals

51%

Bavarian 1+ goals

72%

Bavarian 2+ goals

37%

Bavarian 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Des Moines Menace (draw refunded)

81%

Bavarian (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Des Moines Menace at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Bavarian away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Des Moines Menace attack 3.22 + Bavarian defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.77

Bavarian attack 1.62 + Des Moines Menace defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Des Moines Menace scores more

68%

level

16%

Bavarian scores more

16%

Des Moines Menace at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Des Moines Menace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff