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Dersimspor vs Şanlıurfaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Dersimspor
Dersimspor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Şanlıurfaspor
Şanlıurfaspor
9/17/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundTunceli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dersimspor40%
×Draw21%
Şanlıurfaspor38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dersimspor
1.92
Şanlıurfaspor
1.86

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dersimspor
1.83
Şanlıurfaspor
1.56

allows per match

Dersimspor
2.17
Şanlıurfaspor
2.00

finishing

Dersimspor+0.00on par
Şanlıurfaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dersimspor ↓

Şanlıurfaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Dersimspor or draw
62%
Dersimspor or Şanlıurfaspor
79%
Draw or Şanlıurfaspor
60%

Winning margin

Dersimspor wins by 2+
22%
Şanlıurfaspor wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Dersimspor 1+ goals
85%
Dersimspor 2+ goals
57%
Dersimspor 3+ goals
30%
Şanlıurfaspor 1+ goals
84%
Şanlıurfaspor 2+ goals
55%
Şanlıurfaspor 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Dersimspor (draw refunded)
51%
Şanlıurfaspor (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dersimspor at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Şanlıurfaspor away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dersimspor attack 1.83 + Şanlıurfaspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Şanlıurfaspor attack 1.56 + Dersimspor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dersimspor scores more
40%
level
21%
Şanlıurfaspor scores more
38%

Dersimspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dersimspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Dersimspor 2–0 Şanlıurfaspor

Dersimspor beat Şanlıurfaspor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 17, 2025.

The match was played at Tunceli Atatürk Stadyumu in Tunceli.