Dersimspor 2–2 Kars 36: Result & Stats

Dersimspor

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kars 36

9/17/2023

Türkiye Kupası · Preliminary RoundTunceli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dersimspor40%

×Draw20%

Kars 3640%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DersimsporExpected goals in this matchKars 36

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

Dersimspor

2.08

Kars 36

2.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.83

creates per match

2.00

2.17

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Dersimspor

1.83

Kars 36

2.00

allows per match

Dersimspor

2.17

Kars 36

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dersimspor+0.00on par

Kars 36+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dersimspor ↓

Kars 36 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Dersimspor or draw

60%

Dersimspor or Kars 36

80%

Draw or Kars 36

60%

Winning margin

Dersimspor wins by 2+

22%

Kars 36 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dersimspor 1+ goals

87%

Dersimspor 2+ goals

61%

Dersimspor 3+ goals

34%

Kars 36 1+ goals

87%

Kars 36 2+ goals

61%

Kars 36 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Dersimspor (draw refunded)

50%

Kars 36 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dersimspor at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Kars 36 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dersimspor attack 1.83 + Kars 36 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Kars 36 attack 2.00 + Dersimspor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dersimspor scores more

40%

level

20%

Kars 36 scores more

40%

Dersimspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dersimspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff