Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dersimspor vs Fethiyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Dersimspor
Dersimspor
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Fethiyespor
Fethiyespor
10/28/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dersimspor46%
×Draw22%
Fethiyespor32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dersimspor
1.87
Fethiyespor
1.54

Dersimspor creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Dersimspor
1.83
Fethiyespor
0.91

allows per match

Dersimspor
2.17
Fethiyespor
1.91

finishing

Dersimspor+0.00on par
Fethiyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dersimspor ↓

Fethiyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Dersimspor or draw
68%
Dersimspor or Fethiyespor
78%
Draw or Fethiyespor
54%

Winning margin

Dersimspor wins by 2+
25%
Fethiyespor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dersimspor 1+ goals
85%
Dersimspor 2+ goals
56%
Dersimspor 3+ goals
29%
Fethiyespor 1+ goals
79%
Fethiyespor 2+ goals
45%
Fethiyespor 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dersimspor (draw refunded)
59%
Fethiyespor (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dersimspor at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Fethiyespor away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dersimspor attack 1.83 + Fethiyespor defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.87

Fethiyespor attack 0.91 + Dersimspor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dersimspor scores more
46%
level
22%
Fethiyespor scores more
32%

Dersimspor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dersimspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Dersimspor 0–3 Fethiyespor

Fethiyespor beat Dersimspor 3-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 28, 2025.