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Dersimspor vs Adıyaman 1954 — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Dersimspor
Dersimspor
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 4
Adıyaman 1954
Adıyaman 1954
9/11/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundTunceli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dersimspor44%
×Draw21%
Adıyaman 195435%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dersimspor
2.02
Adıyaman 1954
1.78

Dersimspor creates 13% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dersimspor
1.83
Adıyaman 1954
1.40

allows per match

Dersimspor
2.17
Adıyaman 1954
2.20

finishing

Dersimspor+0.00on par
Adıyaman 1954+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dersimspor ↓

Adıyaman 1954 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Dersimspor or draw
65%
Dersimspor or Adıyaman 1954
79%
Draw or Adıyaman 1954
56%

Winning margin

Dersimspor wins by 2+
25%
Adıyaman 1954 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dersimspor 1+ goals
87%
Dersimspor 2+ goals
60%
Dersimspor 3+ goals
33%
Adıyaman 1954 1+ goals
83%
Adıyaman 1954 2+ goals
53%
Adıyaman 1954 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dersimspor (draw refunded)
56%
Adıyaman 1954 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dersimspor at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Adıyaman 1954 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dersimspor attack 1.83 + Adıyaman 1954 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.02

Adıyaman 1954 attack 1.40 + Dersimspor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dersimspor scores more
44%
level
21%
Adıyaman 1954 scores more
35%

Dersimspor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dersimspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dersimspor vs Adıyaman 1954

Adıyaman 1954 beat Dersimspor 7-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 11, 2024.

The match was played at Tunceli Atatürk Stadyumu in Tunceli.