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Derry City W vs Lisburn Ladies W — Premiership Women 2024

Derry City W
Derry City W
FT
3 – 1
Lisburn Ladies W
Lisburn Ladies W
10/13/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 18The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Derry City W54%
×Draw20%
Lisburn Ladies W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City W
2.42
Lisburn Ladies W
1.67

Derry City W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

Derry City W
1.44
Lisburn Ladies W
1.16

allows per match

Derry City W
2.17
Lisburn Ladies W
3.40

finishing

Derry City W+0.00on par
Lisburn Ladies W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City W ↓

Lisburn Ladies W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Derry City W or draw
73%
Derry City W or Lisburn Ladies W
80%
Draw or Lisburn Ladies W
46%

Winning margin

Derry City W wins by 2+
34%
Lisburn Ladies W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Derry City W 1+ goals
91%
Derry City W 2+ goals
69%
Derry City W 3+ goals
43%
Lisburn Ladies W 1+ goals
81%
Lisburn Ladies W 2+ goals
50%
Lisburn Ladies W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Derry City W (draw refunded)
67%
Lisburn Ladies W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City W at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

Lisburn Ladies W away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.40 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City W attack 1.44 + Lisburn Ladies W defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.42

Lisburn Ladies W attack 1.16 + Derry City W defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Derry City W scores more
54%
level
20%
Lisburn Ladies W scores more
27%

Derry City W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Derry City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Derry City W vs Lisburn Ladies W

Derry City W beat Lisburn Ladies W 3-1 in Premiership Women on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Londonderry.