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Derry City vs Wexford — FAI Cup 2026

Derry City
Derry City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wexford
Wexford
D. Parkhouse 84'
8/9/2019FAI CupFAI Cup · 1st RoundThe Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Derry City73%
×Draw17%
Wexford10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City
2.30
Wexford
0.71

Derry City creates 224% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

creates per match

Derry City
3.00
Wexford
1.30

allows per match

Derry City
0.11
Wexford
1.60

finishing

Derry City+0.00on par
Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City ↓

Wexford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Derry City or draw
90%
Derry City or Wexford
83%
Draw or Wexford
27%

Winning margin

Derry City wins by 2+
49%
Wexford wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Derry City 1+ goals
90%
Derry City 2+ goals
67%
Derry City 3+ goals
40%
Wexford 1+ goals
51%
Wexford 2+ goals
16%
Wexford 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Derry City (draw refunded)
88%
Wexford (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.11 · 9 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City attack 3.00 + Wexford defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Wexford attack 1.30 + Derry City defence 0.11 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Derry City scores more
73%
level
17%
Wexford scores more
10%

Derry City at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'
D. Parkhouse

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Derry City vs Wexford

Derry City beat Wexford 1-0 in FAI Cup on August 9, 2019.

Goals: D. Parkhouse (84').

The match was played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Londonderry.