Derry City 4–0 Shelbourne: Result & Stats | FAI Cup

Derry City

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Shelbourne

J. McEneff 90+2' (pen)

C. McJannett 61', 35'

J. McGonigle 18'

11/13/2022

FAI Cup · FinalAviva Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Derry City69%

×Draw18%

Shelbourne13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Derry CityExpected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

0.87

Derry City

2.27

Shelbourne

0.87

Derry City creates 161% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

3.00

creates per match

1.62

0.11

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Derry City

3.00

Shelbourne

1.62

allows per match

Derry City

0.11

Shelbourne

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derry City+0.00on par

Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Derry City or draw

87%

Derry City or Shelbourne

82%

Draw or Shelbourne

31%

Winning margin

Derry City wins by 2+

45%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Derry City 1+ goals

90%

Derry City 2+ goals

66%

Derry City 3+ goals

39%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

58%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

22%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Derry City (draw refunded)

84%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.11 · 9 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City attack 3.00 + Shelbourne defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.27

Shelbourne attack 1.62 + Derry City defence 0.11 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Derry City scores more

69%

level

18%

Shelbourne scores more

13%

Derry City at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

J. McGonigle

23'

S. Griffin

35'

C. McJannett

46'

B. McManus← S. Farrell

61'

C. McJannett

64'

K. Ledwidge← A. Dervin

71'

M. Coyle← G. Molloy

75'

J. Akintunde← J. McGonigle

82'

C. Coll← S. McEleney

82'

J. Thomson← R. Graydon

90+1'

L. Byrne

90+3'

S. Boyd

90'

B. Kavanagh← M. Duffy

90'

J. McEneff← W. Patching

90+2'

J. McEneffPenalty

Derry

Shelbourne

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

McGonigle

Manager: R. Higgins

75'▲J. Akintunde←▼J. McGonigle

82'▲C. Coll←▼S. McEleney

82'▲J. Thomson←▼R. Graydon

90'▲B. Kavanagh←▼M. Duffy

90'▲J. McEneff←▼W. Patching

Derry City substitutes

AkintundeCollThomsonKavanaghMcEneffKavanaghGlassLaffertyLemoignan

Manager: D. Duff

46'▲B. McManus←▼S. Farrell

64'▲K. Ledwidge←▼A. Dervin

71'▲M. Coyle←▼G. Molloy

Shelbourne substitutes

McManusLedwidgeCoyleO'DriscollCarrHodginsGiurgiBrownevan-der-Sluis

Match Recap: Derry City vs Shelbourne

Derry City beat Shelbourne 4-0 in FAI Cup on November 13, 2022.

Goals: J. McGonigle (18'), C. McJannett (35', 61'), J. McEneff (90+2' pen).

The match was played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin.

Derry City vs Shelbourne — FAI Cup 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Derry City vs Shelbourne