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Derry City vs HNK Rijeka — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Derry City
Derry City
Preview
17:30
HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
7/30/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundThe Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
38%
Derry City
model favours
38%31%32%

HNK Rijeka have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Derry City38%
×Draw31%
HNK Rijeka32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derry City
1.07
HNK Rijeka
0.96

Derry City creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Derry City
1.00
HNK Rijeka
0.92

allows per match

Derry City
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.15

finishing

Derry City+0.00on par
HNK Rijeka+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City ↓

HNK Rijeka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Derry City or draw
68%
Derry City or HNK Rijeka
69%
Draw or HNK Rijeka
62%

Winning margin

Derry City wins by 2+
15%
HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Derry City 1+ goals
66%
Derry City 2+ goals
29%
Derry City 3+ goals
9%
HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
62%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
25%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Derry City (draw refunded)
54%
HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

HNK Rijeka away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City attack 1.00 + HNK Rijeka defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

HNK Rijeka attack 0.92 + Derry City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Derry City scores more
38%
level
31%
HNK Rijeka scores more
32%

Derry City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 35% of HNK Rijeka’s matches
  • 40% of Derry City’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 30% of HNK Rijeka’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
City
LWLLL
Rijeka
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Derry City host HNK Rijeka

July 30, 2026: Derry City take on HNK Rijeka in UEFA Europa Conference League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Derry City host HNK Rijeka at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.