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HNK Rijeka vs Derry City — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
Preview
18:45
Derry City
Derry City
7/23/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundStadion HNK Rijeka
62%
HNK Rijeka
model favours
62%23%15%

HNK Rijeka have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

HNK Rijeka62%
×Draw23%
Derry City15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Rijeka
1.76
Derry City
0.71

HNK Rijeka creates 148% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

HNK Rijeka
1.92
Derry City
0.60

allows per match

HNK Rijeka
0.83
Derry City
1.60

finishing

HNK Rijeka+0.00on par
Derry City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

Derry City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw
85%
HNK Rijeka or Derry City
77%
Draw or Derry City
38%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
36%
Derry City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
83%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
52%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
26%
Derry City 1+ goals
51%
Derry City 2+ goals
16%
Derry City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
81%
Derry City (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Derry City away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 1.92 + Derry City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.76

Derry City attack 0.60 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more
62%
level
23%
Derry City scores more
15%

HNK Rijeka at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Derry City have scored in 9 games running
  • 40% of Derry City’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 32% of HNK Rijeka’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • HNK Rijeka and Derry City have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rijeka
WWWWD
City
WLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: HNK Rijeka host Derry City

July 23, 2026: HNK Rijeka take on Derry City in UEFA Europa Conference League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

HNK Rijeka host Derry City at Stadion HNK Rijeka.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.