Derry City 1–1 Dundalk: Result & Stats

Derry City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dundalk

D. Mullen 64'

J. Mountney 21'

8/9/2024

Premier Division · Round 27The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Derry City50%

×Draw26%

Dundalk24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Derry CityExpected goals in this matchDundalk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.96

Derry City

1.50

Dundalk

0.96

Derry City creates 56% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 84 away

1.63

creates per match

1.04

0.88

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Derry City

1.63

Dundalk

1.04

allows per match

Derry City

0.88

Dundalk

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derry City+0.00on par

Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derry City ↓

Dundalk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Derry City or draw

76%

Derry City or Dundalk

74%

Draw or Dundalk

50%

Winning margin

Derry City wins by 2+

25%

Dundalk wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Derry City 1+ goals

78%

Derry City 2+ goals

44%

Derry City 3+ goals

19%

Dundalk 1+ goals

62%

Dundalk 2+ goals

25%

Dundalk 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Derry City (draw refunded)

67%

Dundalk (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derry City at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.88 · 103 matches

Dundalk away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derry City attack 1.63 + Dundalk defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dundalk attack 1.04 + Derry City defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Derry City scores more

50%

level

26%

Dundalk scores more

24%

Derry City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Derry City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

W. Patching

Derry City · M

8.0

Match Events

21'

J. Mountney↳ D. Horgan

44'

Adam O'Reilly

46'

J. Davenport← A. OReilly

46'

46'

57'

63'

64'

D. Mullen↳ J. Davenport

67'

Mark Connolly

70'

K. Oostenbrink← S. Keogh

74'

78'

78'

81'

82'

C. Whelan← B. Doherty

82'

N. Garbett← D. Horgan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerryDundalk

Overview

77%Possession23%

23Total Shots8

10Corners4

5Fouls11

Shots

23Total Shots8

6On Target3

9Off Target2

8Blocked3

16Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

77%Possession23%

544Total Passes170

454Accurate Passes89

83%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

4Offsides1