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Derio vs San Viator — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Derio
Derio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Viator
San Viator
10/26/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Derio71%
×Draw17%
San Viator12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derio
2.35
San Viator
0.83

Derio creates 183% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Derio
1.29
San Viator
0.65

allows per match

Derio
1.02
San Viator
3.41

finishing

Derio+0.00on par
San Viator+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derio ↓

San Viator →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Derio or draw
88%
Derio or San Viator
83%
Draw or San Viator
29%

Winning margin

Derio wins by 2+
48%
San Viator wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Derio 1+ goals
90%
Derio 2+ goals
68%
Derio 3+ goals
41%
San Viator 1+ goals
56%
San Viator 2+ goals
20%
San Viator 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Derio (draw refunded)
86%
San Viator (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derio at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

San Viator away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derio attack 1.29 + San Viator defence 3.41 → ÷2 → 2.35

San Viator attack 0.65 + Derio defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Derio scores more
71%
level
17%
San Viator scores more
12%

Derio at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Derio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Derio 1–1 San Viator

Derio and San Viator drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo in Derio.