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Derio vs Portugalete — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Derio
Derio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Portugalete
Portugalete
3/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Derio33%
×Draw27%
Portugalete40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derio
1.14
Portugalete
1.29

Portugalete creates 13% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 98 away

creates per match

Derio
1.29
Portugalete
1.56

allows per match

Derio
1.02
Portugalete
0.98

finishing

Derio+0.00on par
Portugalete+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derio ↓

Portugalete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derio or draw
60%
Derio or Portugalete
73%
Draw or Portugalete
67%

Winning margin

Derio wins by 2+
13%
Portugalete wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Derio 1+ goals
68%
Derio 2+ goals
32%
Derio 3+ goals
11%
Portugalete 1+ goals
72%
Portugalete 2+ goals
37%
Portugalete 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Derio (draw refunded)
45%
Portugalete (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derio at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

Portugalete away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.98 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derio attack 1.29 + Portugalete defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Portugalete attack 1.56 + Derio defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Derio scores more
33%
level
27%
Portugalete scores more
40%

Portugalete at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Derio 1–1 Portugalete

Derio and Portugalete drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo in Derio.