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Derio vs Eibar III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Derio
Derio
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Eibar III
Eibar III
4/1/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Derio48%
×Draw26%
Eibar III26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derio
1.54
Eibar III
1.07

Derio creates 44% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Derio
1.29
Eibar III
1.12

allows per match

Derio
1.02
Eibar III
1.79

finishing

Derio+0.00on par
Eibar III+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derio ↓

Eibar III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Derio or draw
74%
Derio or Eibar III
74%
Draw or Eibar III
52%

Winning margin

Derio wins by 2+
24%
Eibar III wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Derio 1+ goals
79%
Derio 2+ goals
45%
Derio 3+ goals
20%
Eibar III 1+ goals
66%
Eibar III 2+ goals
29%
Eibar III 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Derio (draw refunded)
65%
Eibar III (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derio at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

Eibar III away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derio attack 1.29 + Eibar III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Eibar III attack 1.12 + Derio defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Derio scores more
48%
level
26%
Eibar III scores more
26%

Derio at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Derio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derio 2 – 2 Eibar III

Derio and Eibar III drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on April 1, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo in Derio.