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Derio vs Deportivo Alavés III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Derio
Derio
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
1/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Derio45%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Alavés III27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derio
1.35
Deportivo Alavés III
0.98

Derio creates 38% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 51 away

creates per match

Derio
1.29
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

allows per match

Derio
1.02
Deportivo Alavés III
1.41

finishing

Derio+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derio ↓

Deportivo Alavés III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derio or draw
73%
Derio or Deportivo Alavés III
72%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés III
55%

Winning margin

Derio wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Derio 1+ goals
74%
Derio 2+ goals
39%
Derio 3+ goals
15%
Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
26%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Derio (draw refunded)
62%
Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derio at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

Deportivo Alavés III away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derio attack 1.29 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Deportivo Alavés III attack 0.94 + Derio defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Derio scores more
45%
level
28%
Deportivo Alavés III scores more
27%

Derio at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Derio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Derio vs Deportivo Alavés III

Derio beat Deportivo Alavés III 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo in Derio.