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Derio vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Derio
Derio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
9/17/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Derio49%
×Draw26%
Aurrerá Ondarroa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derio
1.47
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.97

Derio creates 52% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 66 away

creates per match

Derio
1.29
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.92

allows per match

Derio
1.02
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.65

finishing

Derio+0.00on par
Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derio ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derio or draw
75%
Derio or Aurrerá Ondarroa
74%
Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa
51%

Winning margin

Derio wins by 2+
24%
Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Derio 1+ goals
77%
Derio 2+ goals
43%
Derio 3+ goals
18%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
62%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
25%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Derio (draw refunded)
66%
Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derio at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derio attack 1.29 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.47

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Derio defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Derio scores more
49%
level
26%
Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
25%

Derio at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Derio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Derio vs Aurrerá Ondarroa

Derio beat Aurrerá Ondarroa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo in Derio.