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Dergview vs Dundela — League #407 2026

Dergview
Dergview
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dundela
Dundela
J. Jenkins 3'
9/2/2023League #407League #407 · Round 5Darragh Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dergview38%
×Draw25%
Dundela37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dergview
1.44
Dundela
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

creates per match

Dergview
0.63
Dundela
1.26

allows per match

Dergview
1.56
Dundela
2.26

finishing

Dergview+0.00on par
Dundela+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dergview ↓

Dundela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dergview or draw
63%
Dergview or Dundela
75%
Draw or Dundela
62%

Winning margin

Dergview wins by 2+
18%
Dundela wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dergview 1+ goals
76%
Dergview 2+ goals
42%
Dergview 3+ goals
18%
Dundela 1+ goals
76%
Dundela 2+ goals
41%
Dundela 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dergview (draw refunded)
51%
Dundela (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dergview at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

Dundela away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dergview attack 0.63 + Dundela defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dundela attack 1.26 + Dergview defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dergview scores more
38%
level
25%
Dundela scores more
37%

Dergview at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dergview will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
J. Jenkins

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Dergview 0–1 Dundela

Dundela beat Dergview 1-0 in League #407 on September 2, 2023.

Goals: J. Jenkins (3').

The match was played at Darragh Park in Castlederg.