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Deren vs Ulaanbaatar City — Premier League 2020

Deren
Deren
FT
3 – 0
Ulaanbaatar City
Ulaanbaatar City
6/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Deren50%
×Draw20%
Ulaanbaatar City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deren
2.29
Ulaanbaatar City
1.77

Deren creates 29% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 55 away

creates per match

Deren
2.82
Ulaanbaatar City
2.31

allows per match

Deren
1.23
Ulaanbaatar City
1.76

finishing

Deren+0.00on par
Ulaanbaatar City+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deren ↓

Ulaanbaatar City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Deren or draw
70%
Deren or Ulaanbaatar City
80%
Draw or Ulaanbaatar City
50%

Winning margin

Deren wins by 2+
30%
Ulaanbaatar City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deren 1+ goals
90%
Deren 2+ goals
66%
Deren 3+ goals
40%
Ulaanbaatar City 1+ goals
83%
Ulaanbaatar City 2+ goals
53%
Ulaanbaatar City 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Deren (draw refunded)
62%
Ulaanbaatar City (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deren at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

Ulaanbaatar City away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.76 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deren attack 2.82 + Ulaanbaatar City defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.29

Ulaanbaatar City attack 2.31 + Deren defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Deren scores more
50%
level
20%
Ulaanbaatar City scores more
30%

Deren at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deren vs Ulaanbaatar City

Deren beat Ulaanbaatar City 3-0 in Premier League on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.