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Deren vs UB Mazaalaynuud — Premier League 2020

Deren
Deren
FT
2 – 1
UB Mazaalaynuud
UB Mazaalaynuud
8/11/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deren79%
×Draw13%
UB Mazaalaynuud9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deren
3.13
UB Mazaalaynuud
0.97

Deren creates 223% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 18 away

creates per match

Deren
2.82
UB Mazaalaynuud
0.72

allows per match

Deren
1.23
UB Mazaalaynuud
3.44

finishing

Deren+0.00on par
UB Mazaalaynuud+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deren ↓

UB Mazaalaynuud →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Deren or draw
91%
Deren or UB Mazaalaynuud
87%
Draw or UB Mazaalaynuud
21%

Winning margin

Deren wins by 2+
60%
UB Mazaalaynuud wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Deren 1+ goals
95%
Deren 2+ goals
81%
Deren 3+ goals
59%
UB Mazaalaynuud 1+ goals
62%
UB Mazaalaynuud 2+ goals
25%
UB Mazaalaynuud 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deren (draw refunded)
90%
UB Mazaalaynuud (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deren at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

UB Mazaalaynuud away — creates 0.72, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deren attack 2.82 + UB Mazaalaynuud defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 3.13

UB Mazaalaynuud attack 0.72 + Deren defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Deren scores more
79%
level
13%
UB Mazaalaynuud scores more
9%

Deren at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deren vs UB Mazaalaynuud

Deren beat UB Mazaalaynuud 2-1 in Premier League on August 11, 2021.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.