Deren 2–2 Khoromkhon: Result & Stats

Deren

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Khoromkhon

3/10/2024

Premier League · Round 11Mongolian Football Federation Training Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Deren67%

×Draw16%

Khoromkhon17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerenExpected goals in this matchKhoromkhon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.19

1.61

Deren

3.19

Khoromkhon

1.61

Deren creates 98% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 57 away

2.82

creates per match

2.00

1.23

allows per match

3.56

creates per match

Deren

2.82

Khoromkhon

2.00

allows per match

Deren

1.23

Khoromkhon

3.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deren+0.00on par

Khoromkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deren ↓

Khoromkhon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

69%31%4.5

50%50%

Double chance

Deren or draw

83%

Deren or Khoromkhon

84%

Draw or Khoromkhon

33%

Winning margin

Deren wins by 2+

48%

Khoromkhon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Deren 1+ goals

96%

Deren 2+ goals

82%

Deren 3+ goals

60%

Khoromkhon 1+ goals

80%

Khoromkhon 2+ goals

48%

Khoromkhon 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Deren (draw refunded)

80%

Khoromkhon (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deren at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

Khoromkhon away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.56 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deren attack 2.82 + Khoromkhon defence 3.56 → ÷2 → 3.19

Khoromkhon attack 2.00 + Deren defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Deren scores more

67%

level

16%

Khoromkhon scores more

17%

Deren at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff