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Deren vs Athletic 220 — Premier League 2020

Deren
Deren
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Athletic 220
Athletic 220
11/6/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deren47%
×Draw21%
Athletic 22032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deren
2.06
Athletic 220
1.67

Deren creates 23% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 27 away

creates per match

Deren
2.82
Athletic 220
2.11

allows per match

Deren
1.23
Athletic 220
1.30

finishing

Deren+0.00on par
Athletic 220+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deren ↓

Athletic 220 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Deren or draw
68%
Deren or Athletic 220
79%
Draw or Athletic 220
53%

Winning margin

Deren wins by 2+
27%
Athletic 220 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deren 1+ goals
87%
Deren 2+ goals
61%
Deren 3+ goals
34%
Athletic 220 1+ goals
81%
Athletic 220 2+ goals
50%
Athletic 220 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Deren (draw refunded)
60%
Athletic 220 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deren at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

Athletic 220 away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deren attack 2.82 + Athletic 220 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.06

Athletic 220 attack 2.11 + Deren defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deren scores more
47%
level
21%
Athletic 220 scores more
32%

Deren at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deren vs Athletic 220

Deren and Athletic 220 drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.