Deren 1–0 Anduud City: Result & Stats

Deren

FT

1 – 0

Anduud City

8/30/2020

Premier League · Round 12Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Deren76%

×Draw13%

Anduud City11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerenExpected goals in this matchAnduud City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.35

1.23

Deren

3.35

Anduud City

1.23

Deren creates 172% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 9 away

2.82

creates per match

1.22

1.23

allows per match

3.89

creates per match

Deren

2.82

Anduud City

1.22

allows per match

Deren

1.23

Anduud City

3.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deren+0.00on par

Anduud City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deren ↓

Anduud City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Deren or draw

89%

Deren or Anduud City

87%

Draw or Anduud City

24%

Winning margin

Deren wins by 2+

58%

Anduud City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Deren 1+ goals

96%

Deren 2+ goals

84%

Deren 3+ goals

63%

Anduud City 1+ goals

71%

Anduud City 2+ goals

35%

Anduud City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Deren (draw refunded)

88%

Anduud City (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deren at home — creates 2.82, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

Anduud City away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deren attack 2.82 + Anduud City defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 3.35

Anduud City attack 1.22 + Deren defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Deren scores more

76%

level

13%

Anduud City scores more

11%

Deren at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Deren will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff