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Derby vs Sheffield Utd — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
K. Smith 59'
I. Ndiaye 85'
G. Baldock 83'
A. Slimane 17'
7/29/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Derby22%
×Draw22%
Sheffield Utd56%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.17
Sheffield Utd
2.00

Sheffield Utd creates 71% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Derby
1.67
Sheffield Utd
2.00

allows per match

Derby
2.00
Sheffield Utd
0.67

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Derby or draw
44%
Derby or Sheffield Utd
78%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
78%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
9%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
69%
Derby 2+ goals
33%
Derby 3+ goals
11%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
86%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
59%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
28%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.67 + Sheffield Utd defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sheffield Utd attack 2.00 + Derby defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Derby scores more
22%
level
22%
Sheffield Utd scores more
56%

Sheffield Utd at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
A. Slimane
46'
L. Thompson← C. Forsyth
59'
K. Smith
70'
J. Collins← C. Washington
70'
N. Mendez-Laing← M. Waghorn
70'
J. Ward← K. Wilson
76'
A. Slimane← C. Basham
83'
G. Baldock
85'
I. Ndiaye
88'
B. Osborn← A. Brooks

Statistics

DerbySheffield
Overview
10Corners3

Match Recap: Derby vs Sheffield Utd

Sheffield Utd beat Derby 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 29, 2023.

Goals: A. Slimane (17'), K. Smith (59'), G. Baldock (83'), I. Ndiaye (85').

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.