Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Derby vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
T. Lawrence 78', 69'
1/15/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Derby38%
×Draw28%
Sheffield Utd34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.21
Sheffield Utd
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 45 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Sheffield Utd
1.27

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Sheffield Utd
1.19

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
66%
Derby or Sheffield Utd
72%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
62%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
16%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
70%
Derby 2+ goals
34%
Derby 3+ goals
12%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
68%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
32%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
52%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sheffield Utd attack 1.27 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Derby scores more
38%
level
28%
Sheffield Utd scores more
34%

Derby at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
T. LawrenceDerbyDerby · F
8.3

Match Events

46'
C. Forsyth← K. Jóźwiak
61'
C. Kazim-Richards← L. Plange
67'
R. Brewster← D. McGoldrick
68'
C. Hourihane← S. Berge
69'
T. Lawrence
78'
Tom Lawrence
78'
T. Lawrence↳ F. Ebosele
83'
E. Cashin← T. Lawrence
83'
B. Osborn← J. Robinson
90+3'
Iliman Ndiaye

Possession

44%Derby

Shots

5Derby

Pass accuracy

48%Derby

Statistics

DerbySheffield
Overview
44%Possession56%
5Total Shots8
1Corners0
7Fouls13
Shots
5Total Shots8
2On Target2
1Off Target3
2Blocked3
3Inside Box7
2Outside Box1
Passing
44%Possession56%
379Total Passes472
280Accurate Passes377
74%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
7Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Championship: Derby 2–0 Sheffield Utd

Derby beat Sheffield Utd 2-0 in Championship on January 15, 2022.

Goals: T. Lawrence (69', 78').

Sheffield Utd controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 5.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.