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Derby vs Peterborough — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Peterborough
Peterborough
2/19/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 33Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Derby60%
×Draw23%
Peterborough17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.77
Peterborough
0.82

Derby creates 116% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 25 away

creates per match

Derby
1.27
Peterborough
0.68

allows per match

Derby
0.96
Peterborough
2.28

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Derby or draw
83%
Derby or Peterborough
77%
Draw or Peterborough
40%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
34%
Peterborough wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
83%
Derby 2+ goals
53%
Derby 3+ goals
26%
Peterborough 1+ goals
56%
Peterborough 2+ goals
20%
Peterborough 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
78%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.96 · 142 matches

Peterborough away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.27 + Peterborough defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.77

Peterborough attack 0.68 + Derby defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Derby scores more
60%
level
23%
Peterborough scores more
17%

Derby at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Derby 1–0 Peterborough

Derby beat Peterborough 1-0 in Championship on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.