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Derby vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
T. Lawrence 84', 22'
11/2/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 46+ matches

Derby37%
×Draw27%
Middlesbrough36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.23
Middlesbrough
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 65 away

creates per match

Derby
1.22
Middlesbrough
1.39

allows per match

Derby
1.01
Middlesbrough
1.24

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Derby or draw
64%
Derby or Middlesbrough
73%
Draw or Middlesbrough
63%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
16%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
71%
Derby 2+ goals
35%
Derby 3+ goals
13%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
70%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
34%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
51%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Derby scores more
37%
level
27%
Middlesbrough scores more
36%

Derby at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
T. LawrenceDerbyDerby · M
9.1

Match Events

15'
Paddy McNair
22'
T. Lawrence↳ C. Martin
32'
George Saville
35'
A. Dijksteel← M. Browne
53'
G. Evans← K. Bielik
67'
M. Waghorn← C. Martin
79'
S. Walker← M. Johnson
79'
H. Coulson← L. Wing
84'
T. Lawrence↳ J. Bogle
85'
M. Lowe← S. Malone

Possession

60%Derby

Shots

23Derby

Pass accuracy

53%Derby

Statistics

DerbyMiddlesbrough
Overview
60%Possession40%
23Total Shots10
6Corners2
10Fouls13
Shots
23Total Shots10
10On Target1
6Off Target4
7Blocked5
14Inside Box3
9Outside Box7
Passing
60%Possession40%
543Total Passes338
466Accurate Passes254
86%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
0Saves8
Discipline
10Fouls13
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Derby vs Middlesbrough

Derby beat Middlesbrough 2-0 in Championship on November 2, 2019.

Goals: T. Lawrence (22', 84').

Derby controlled possession (60%) and registered 23 shots to 10.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.