Derby 1–0 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Derby

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cambridge United

L. Dobbin 57'

12/30/2022

League One · Round 24Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Derby59%

×Draw23%

Cambridge United18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.86

Derby

1.77

Cambridge United

0.86

Derby creates 106% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 92 away

1.76

creates per match

0.89

0.83

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Derby

1.76

Cambridge United

0.89

allows per match

Derby

0.83

Cambridge United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Derby or draw

82%

Derby or Cambridge United

77%

Draw or Cambridge United

41%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

33%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

83%

Derby 2+ goals

53%

Derby 3+ goals

26%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

58%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

21%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

77%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.76 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.77

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Derby defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Derby scores more

59%

level

23%

Cambridge United scores more

18%

Derby at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

E. Cashin

Derby · D

8.0

Match Events

35'

Louie Sibley

57'

L. Dobbin↳ N. Mendez-Laing

68'

J. Knight← C. Hourihane

73'

T. Barkhuizen← L. Dobbin

74'

J. Ironside← J. Lankester

75'

76'

77'

81'

89'

90+3'

90+1'

C. Davies← D. McGoldrick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbyCambridge

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots9

2Corners4

13Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots9

6On Target2

5Off Target4

3Blocked3

11Inside Box8

3Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

435Total Passes274

335Accurate Passes154

77%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0