Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Derby vs Bristol Rovers — League One 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
11/25/2023League OneLeague One · Round 19Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Derby56%
×Draw24%
Bristol Rovers20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.67
Bristol Rovers
0.89

Derby creates 88% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 133 away

creates per match

Derby
1.76
Bristol Rovers
0.94

allows per match

Derby
0.83
Bristol Rovers
1.58

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Derby or draw
80%
Derby or Bristol Rovers
76%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
44%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
30%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
81%
Derby 2+ goals
50%
Derby 3+ goals
23%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
59%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
22%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
74%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.76 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bristol Rovers attack 0.94 + Derby defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Derby scores more
56%
level
24%
Bristol Rovers scores more
20%

Derby at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Derby 2–1 Bristol Rovers

Derby beat Bristol Rovers 2-1 in League One on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.